U.S. Imports Projected to Plummet in May

Import activity at major U.S. ports is expected to take a sharp downturn starting in May, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. This comes as new sweeping tariffs are now in place across all U.S. trade partners.

While April’s container import volume is projected to be 3.1% higher than April 2024, May will likely mark the end of an impressive 19-month streak of year-over-year growth. The forecast for May is a steep decline to 1.66 million TEU, a 20.5% drop from the same month last year. The downward trend isn’t expected to stop there—June imports are predicted to fall by 26.6%, July by 27%, and August by 26.8% year-over-year.

In March, before the full impact of tariffs took hold, U.S. import volumes were up 7.4% month-over-month and 11% compared to last year. However, the effect of ongoing trade tensions—especially with China—is becoming more visible. Imports from Northeast Asia fell by 2.8% month-over-month, while the Port of Los Angeles experienced a much sharper 17% monthly decline. Imports from China to Los Angeles dropped 21%, largely driven by a 9% dip in furniture shipments, which remain the largest volume import category, making up 12.1% of total year-to-date volume.

Load-to-Truck Ratio Holds Steady After Drop

Dry van load post volumes dropped sharply the week before last, but the market remained relatively stable last week. Compared to the same week last year, current volumes are nearly identical and sit 27% above the long-term average for Week 16, excluding anomalies from the pandemic years 2020 and 2021.

The load-to-truck ratio (LTR) for dry vans dipped 9%, landing at 4.20 for the week.

Dry Van Linehaul Spot Rates See Slight Dip

Dry van linehaul spot rates declined slightly last week, falling just under $0.02 per mile. The national 7-day rolling average paid carriers around $1.60 per mile, reflecting a 4% drop in load volume. Still, spot rates were $0.05/mile higher than last year and $0.08/mile higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and 2020.

On DAT’s Top 50 lanes, carriers earned $1.89/mile—holding steady from the previous week and standing $0.29/mile above the national rolling average.

Midwest Snapshot: A Key Indicator

In the Midwest region, which includes 13 bellwether states accounting for 43% of the nation’s dry van load volume, spot market conditions softened. Outbound rates declined $0.04/mile as outbound volume fell 5% week-over-week. Inbound load volumes also dropped by 5%.
Carriers in the Midwest were paid an average of $1.79/mile, a healthy $0.19/mile above the national spot rate average, reinforcing the region’s continued influence on broader market trends.